WILL I NEED LONG-TERM CARE?

Request A Quote

Disclaimer: This website provides general information. It is not intended as a substitute for personal financial, legal or insurance advice.

Think of it this way: How many sensible adults would encourage a teen to think "it'll never happen to me" and recommend they take their chances with unprotected sex. There, the likelihood of making a costly mistake is what, 1-3 in 28? Meanwhile, the best data show that the chance of a woman needing LTC is 1 in 2 and for a man it is 1 in 3. There is a full 70% chance that in a couple at least one will need long-term care. The same people who'd lecture teens not to take their chances inexplicably consider taking their own. Perhaps it's not strictly an apples-to-apples comparison, but close, and the results of both choices pose a heavy risk to family and finances.

But if you've already begun LTC planning, you know that asking how long your long-term care - if you need it - will last is an even more bedeviling question. Be aware that statistics you might hear "revealing" how long these events last vary depending on the study and are just not a reliable way to plan. I have seen averages used from less than 2 years to 4.7 years, a difference of hundreds of thousands of future LTC dollar costs. The fact is, no one knows, partly because so much LTC is still provided by family and friends and goes unreported. Besides, all the most accurate averages in the world mean nothing to your unique experience and financial capability to handle it, and not knowing averages for sure does not hinder sensible policy design.

Long-term care planning is less about statistical wagering, and more about preparation. It's knowing that if you need care tomorrow or 30 years from now, you have the funds available to protect your estate and family while ensuring quality care. Statistics about the average duration of LTC will be mercurial for long into the future as reporting expands and covers more people. Whether or not you are protected is more certain: yes, no, or yes up to your ability.

Long-term care can be divided into two general types according to time of onset:

1) What I call "aging-related LTC" occurs due to chronic disease that develops or worsens during the aging process during one's last 1-5 years (e.g., hypertension, fractures, diabetes, bone and joint disorders, chronic obstructive lung disease, dementia, cancers, stroke and arhythmia/atrial fibrillation). Most people focus on this because it's less expensive to insure and the most talked about risk.

If you are healthy you might be tempted to believe you will skate through aging with little to no long-term care, but a common cause of LTC is living a long life and becoming - not sick - but simply too frail to function on your own. In addition, aging - not genetics - is the primary risk factor for Alzheimer's, striking 42% of people over age 85¹ (only a "tiny" percent is attributable strictly to genes and that involves an early onset).²

2) The other type of LTC strikes more unexpectedly and before "aging-related" LTC sets in. It arises from a variety of causes (e.g., accidents, MS, strokes, ALS, non-genetic early-onset Alzheimer's or Parkinson's). These types of LTC cases can last much longer and account for about 40-50% (varying study results) of LTC provided to people under age 65. It happens to people and their families who all would have agreed they never really thought that would happen to them, striking indiscriminately among both those who are health conscious and those who aren't.

You need to consider both scenarios as you plan for long term care. While people find many compelling reasons to insure against aging-related LTC (not least of which is that the older you are the more likely you will need LTC some day), and while this is appropriately the priority coverage for most Americans, just be aware that the only way to secure complete estate and family protection is by purchasing lifetime coverage with an adequate daily benefit.

An experienced specialist will know the order of priority among the choices in a long-term care insurance plan to provide the best protection for the premium you can afford. S/he will also know when some coverage is better than none and when it is not.

1. "Alzheimer's Disease Facts and Figures, 2007". Alzheimer's Association.

1. Ibid.

More sources coming.

Copyright © Martha H. Bowes, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008